Updated: May 5

Take a free throw shooter like Steph Curry. He is one of the all time best at 90.6%. Fans would say if he misses a free throw then he is even more likely to make the next because he just missed one. But they love to teach in statistics that that the shot he just missed does not increase his 90.6% chances any higher– because stats are measured over broad sample sizes. His chances for the second free throw are still at 90.6%, and not higher.

The sucker example of this is the digital board at roulette tables that shows the last few results. The thinking is if those numbers came up then they are less likely to repeat. But in truth the odds of the ball landing on 3 are the same as if it has landed on 3 a few rolls ago.

At Bragr, we are all about probabilities and chance. Share the Game.